- beta estimate difference - sources of error
- tax drag
- synthetic CDO
- effective collar
- option adjusted spread
- pure expectation & liquidity preference theory
IACPM = RF + world market risk premium * sensitivity + foreign currency risk premium(expected appreciation - RFΔ) sensitivity
Quantitative Methods
- mean reversion = b0 / (1 - b1)
- Sharpe ratio = E(Rm) - RF / σm
ANOVA(Analysis of Variance)
- SST(total variation) = RSS(explained variation; regression value - mean) + SSE(unexplained variation; observed value - regression value)
- MSR(regression mean square) = RSS / k(# independent factors)
- MSE(mean squared error) = SSE / (n - k - 1)
- SEE(standard error of estimate) = √MSE
- R²(% of total variation explained by independent variable) = RSS/SST
- Radj²(adjusts for cost of adding more independent variables) = 1 - [ (n-1)/(n-k-1) * (1-R²) ]
- F-statistic = MSR / MSE
Multiple Regression violations
- Heteroskedasticity residual variance // independent variable; results Type I errors; detected by Breusch-Pagan χ² test; corrected by White-corrected standard ε
- AutoCorrelation correlated residuals, error term tends in same direction as previous term(+); results Type I errors; detection with Durbin-Watson test; corrected by Hansen method
- Multicollinearity correlated independent variables; results Type II errors; conflicting t and F statistics; corrected by dropping correlated variable
Financial Statement Analysis
Intercorporate Investment
- Purchase method: consolidation at market value
- Pooling of interest method: recorded at book value, no goodwill
| Trading | Available for sale | Held to maturity
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Balance Sheet | fair value | fair value w/ unrealized G/L in equity | amortized cost
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Income Statement | dividend + unrealized G/L | dividend | interest + realized G/L only
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- Equity method: lower leverage, higher profit margin
- Proportionate Consolidation: required under IFRS
- Bootstrap earnings effect - acquirer's P/E > acquiree's P/E, and doesn't decline post-merger
Pension program equations
- ΔPBO(projected benefit obligation) = service cost + interest cost + amortization(previous service cost + aRoA - eRoA - benefits paid
- PBO ⇑ when life expectancy⇑, salary growth⇑, discount rate⇓
- ΔFVPA(fair value of plan assets) = aRoA + employer contribution - benefits paid
- Funded status = net asset - liability (U.S. GAAP)
- Net pension asset = funded status - unrecognized losses (IFRS)
- Net pension expense = service cost + interest cost - eRoA + amortization
- CTAf = Asset - Liabilities - common equity - REf
- REf(final retained earning) = REi + N/I - dividend
- Economic pension expense = (PBOf - PBOi - actual RoA?) = ΔFS - employer contributions = service cost + interest cost - actuarial gain - actual RoPA
Overseas Subsidiary
- translation(current method) results equity account adjustment
- remeasurement(temporal method) results gain/loss in income statement
- revenue & operating exp. translated at average rate under all-current method
| Temporal method | All-current method
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Assets/Liabilities | monetary A/L - current rate nonmonetary A/L - historical rate | all current rate
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Common stock | historical
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Equity | mixed rate balanced by R/E | ΔR/E reflected at current rate, balanced by CTA account
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Revenues/SG&A | average rate | average rate
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COGS & Depreciation | historical rate
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FX Gain/Loss | I/S at historical rate | current rate in equity CTA account
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Earnings Quality
B/S adjustment | applicable situation | effect
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Operating asset capitalization | operating leases, unconsolidated SPEs, receivable sales, corporate guarantees, long-term investments | Asset ↑ Liability ↑
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Asset revaluation | marketable securities, inventory valuation change(LIFO->FIFO), depreciation method, foreign currency effect, R&D expense, PP&E&intangible asset impairment, goodwill write-off | ΔA -> ΔE
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Reclassification | eliminated deferred tax A/L, deferred revenue, convertible debt to equity, long-term debt amortization | ΔL -> -ΔE
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Accrual ratio = (NI - CFO - CFI)/NOA
- lower accrual ratio -> higher earnings quality
Corporate Finance
- Static trade-off theory seeks an optimal capital structure with an optimal proportion of debt, to balance the costs of financial distress with the tax shield benefits from using debt
Divestitures
- Carve-outs: new subsidiary shares issued to existing common shareholders
- Spin-offs: shares not sold in public, only distributed to existing shareholders
- Contango: future value > spot price
- Backwardation: future value < spot price
Equity Investments
Discounted Dividend Model minority owner perspective
- equity risk premium = dividend rate on market index + long-term earnings growth - long-term govt. bond yield
- V0 = D0(1+gL + H(gs-gL)) / (r-gL)
- 2-stage model
- grow dividends at high growth period, then calculate future value using perpetual growth model, and discount back by required return
Free Cash Flow control perspective
- FCFF = CFO + Int(1-t) - FCInv = NI + NCC - WCInv + Int(1-t) - FCInv
- FCFE = FCFF + net borrowing - Int(1-t) = NI + NCC - WCInv - FCInv + net borrowing
- NCC(noncash charges) = depreciation&amortization - gain/(loss) on asset sale + restructuring expense _ nonreversible deferred tax liability + bond discounts/(premiums) amortization
- FCF // liability(accounts payable, accrued taxes & expenses)
Price Multiples
(note that ROE-g ~ dividend / book value)
- EV(enterprise value) = MVcommon stock + MVdebt + MVpreferred - cash&investment
- intrinsic P/E = tangible P/E + franchise P/E = 1/r + (1/r - 1/ROE) * (g / r-g)
- build-up method
- required return on equity = risk-free rate + equity risk premium + size premium + specific company premium
Residual Income net income - opportunity cost of equity (amt. equity capital * cost of equity)
- EVA(economic value added) = NOPAT - (%WACC x total capitalization)
- NOPAT = EBIT(1-t)
- single stage model: V0 = B0[1 + (ROE - r)/(r-g)]
Alternative Investments
Real Estate
- Taxes = (NOI - depreciation - interest) x tax rate
- CFAT(cash flows after tax) = NOI - principal debt service - taxex
- ERAT(equity reversion after taxes) = selling price - selling costs - mortgage balance - taxes on sale
Income property analysis
- capitalization rate = r - g
- MV = NOI / (r-g)
Private Equity
- exit value = investment cost + earnings growth + multiple expansion + debt reduction
- carried interest estimation = (NAVbefore - committed capital) * %carried interest
Fixed Income
- interest rates
- Z-spread - OAS = option cost
- embedded options
- finance Greek variables
- delta: // spot price
- gamma: // Δdelta
- vega: // volatility
- theta: // time to expiration
- rho: // risk-free rate
- Conditional Payment Rate = 6% * t/30 * PSA
- Single Monthly Mortality = 1 - (1 - CPR)0.083
Derivatives
- Futures FP = S0(1+r)T - FVD
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