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CFA2: Review

  • beta estimate difference - sources of error
  • tax drag
  • synthetic CDO
  • effective collar
  • option adjusted spread
  • pure expectation & liquidity preference theory

IACPM = RF + world market risk premium * sensitivity + foreign currency risk premium(expected appreciation - RFΔ) sensitivity

Quantitative Methods

  • mean reversion = b0 / (1 - b1)
  • Sharpe ratio = E(Rm) - RF / σm

ANOVA(Analysis of Variance)

  • SST(total variation) = RSS(explained variation; regression value - mean) + SSE(unexplained variation; observed value - regression value)
  • MSR(regression mean square) = RSS / k(# independent factors)
  • MSE(mean squared error) = SSE / (n - k - 1)
  • SEE(standard error of estimate) = √MSE
  • R²(% of total variation explained by independent variable) = RSS/SST
  • Radj²(adjusts for cost of adding more independent variables) = 1 - [ (n-1)/(n-k-1) * (1-R²) ]
  • F-statistic = MSR / MSE

Multiple Regression violations

  • Heteroskedasticity residual variance // independent variable; results Type I errors; detected by Breusch-Pagan χ² test; corrected by White-corrected standard ε
  • AutoCorrelation correlated residuals, error term tends in same direction as previous term(+); results Type I errors; detection with Durbin-Watson test; corrected by Hansen method
  • Multicollinearity correlated independent variables; results Type II errors; conflicting t and F statistics; corrected by dropping correlated variable

Financial Statement Analysis

Intercorporate Investment

  • Purchase method: consolidation at market value
  • Pooling of interest method: recorded at book value, no goodwill
Trading Available for sale Held to maturity
Balance Sheet fair value fair value w/ unrealized G/L in equity amortized cost
Income Statement dividend + unrealized G/L dividend interest + realized G/L only
  • Equity method: lower leverage, higher profit margin
  • Proportionate Consolidation: required under IFRS
  • Bootstrap earnings effect - acquirer's P/E > acquiree's P/E, and doesn't decline post-merger

Pension program equations

  • ΔPBO(projected benefit obligation) = service cost + interest cost + amortization(previous service cost + aRoA - eRoA - benefits paid
PBO ⇑ when life expectancy⇑, salary growth⇑, discount rate⇓
  • ΔFVPA(fair value of plan assets) = aRoA + employer contribution - benefits paid
  • Funded status = net asset - liability (U.S. GAAP)
  • Net pension asset = funded status - unrecognized losses (IFRS)
  • Net pension expense = service cost + interest cost - eRoA + amortization
  • CTAf = Asset - Liabilities - common equity - REf
  • REf(final retained earning) = REi + N/I - dividend
  • Economic pension expense = (PBOf - PBOi - actual RoA?) = ΔFS - employer contributions = service cost + interest cost - actuarial gain - actual RoPA

Overseas Subsidiary

    • translation(current method) results equity account adjustment
    • remeasurement(temporal method) results gain/loss in income statement
    • revenue & operating exp. translated at average rate under all-current method
Temporal method All-current method
Assets/Liabilities monetary A/L - current rate
nonmonetary A/L - historical rate
all current rate
Common stock historical
Equity mixed rate
balanced by R/E
ΔR/E reflected at current rate,
balanced by CTA account
Revenues/SG&A average rate average rate
COGS & Depreciation historical rate
FX Gain/Loss I/S at historical rate current rate in equity CTA account

Earnings Quality

B/S adjustment applicable situation effect
Operating asset capitalization operating leases, unconsolidated SPEs, receivable sales, corporate guarantees, long-term investments Asset ↑ Liability ↑
Asset revaluation marketable securities, inventory valuation change(LIFO->FIFO), depreciation method, foreign currency effect, R&D expense, PP&E&intangible asset impairment, goodwill write-offΔA -> ΔE
Reclassification eliminated deferred tax A/L, deferred revenue, convertible debt to equity, long-term debt amortizationΔL -> -ΔE
  • LIFO review

Accrual ratio = (NI - CFO - CFI)/NOA

  • lower accrual ratio -> higher earnings quality

Corporate Finance

  • Static trade-off theory seeks an optimal capital structure with an optimal proportion of debt, to balance the costs of financial distress with the tax shield benefits from using debt

Divestitures

  • Carve-outs: new subsidiary shares issued to existing common shareholders
  • Spin-offs: shares not sold in public, only distributed to existing shareholders
  • Contango: future value > spot price
  • Backwardation: future value < spot price

Equity Investments

Discounted Dividend Model minority owner perspective

  • Gordon growth model
equity risk premium = dividend rate on market index + long-term earnings growth - long-term govt. bond yield
  • H-model
V0 = D0(1+gL + H(gs-gL)) / (r-gL)
  • 2-stage model
  • grow dividends at high growth period, then calculate future value using perpetual growth model, and discount back by required return

Free Cash Flow control perspective

  • FCFF = CFO + Int(1-t) - FCInv = NI + NCC - WCInv + Int(1-t) - FCInv
  • FCFE = FCFF + net borrowing - Int(1-t) = NI + NCC - WCInv - FCInv + net borrowing
NCC(noncash charges) = depreciation&amortization - gain/(loss) on asset sale + restructuring expense _ nonreversible deferred tax liability + bond discounts/(premiums) amortization
FCF // liability(accounts payable, accrued taxes & expenses)

Price Multiples

   (note that ROE-g ~ dividend / book value)
  • EV(enterprise value) = MVcommon stock + MVdebt + MVpreferred - cash&investment
  • intrinsic P/E = tangible P/E + franchise P/E = 1/r + (1/r - 1/ROE) * (g / r-g)
  • build-up method
required return on equity = risk-free rate + equity risk premium + size premium + specific company premium

Residual Income net income - opportunity cost of equity (amt. equity capital * cost of equity)

  • EVA(economic value added) = NOPAT - (%WACC x total capitalization)
NOPAT = EBIT(1-t)
single stage model: V0 = B0[1 + (ROE - r)/(r-g)]

Alternative Investments

Real Estate

  • Taxes = (NOI - depreciation - interest) x tax rate
  • CFAT(cash flows after tax) = NOI - principal debt service - taxex
  • ERAT(equity reversion after taxes) = selling price - selling costs - mortgage balance - taxes on sale

Income property analysis

  • capitalization rate = r - g
  • MV = NOI / (r-g)

Private Equity

  • Leveraged buyout
exit value = investment cost + earnings growth + multiple expansion + debt reduction
  • carried interest estimation = (NAVbefore - committed capital) * %carried interest

Fixed Income

  • interest rates
  • Z-spread - OAS = option cost
  • embedded options


  • finance Greek variables
    • delta: // spot price
    • gamma: // Δdelta
    • vega: // volatility
    • theta: // time to expiration
    • rho: // risk-free rate
  • Conditional Payment Rate = 6% * t/30 * PSA
  • Single Monthly Mortality = 1 - (1 - CPR)0.083

Derivatives

  • Futures FP = S0(1+r)T - FVD
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